Anyway, I don't think this article from Hotel Interactive has too much bearing on occupancies in Livingstone, but very interesting nevertheless, and as mentioned somewhere yesterday the price of copper is on the up, as too the value of the Kwacha - these things do effect business in Zambia:

'Though it doesn’t look as if the industry is ready to rejoice just yet, it does appear one thing is clear: The worst is over. And the news couldn’t come any quicker for the beleaguered crowd attending the 31st Annual New York University International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference recently.

Part reality and part psychology, the attendees here are exhibiting a lot less of the sad sack attitude that permeated the Americas Lodging Investment Conference this past January. In fact, it was a major attitudinal reversal as more people are actively looking for silver linings with the expectation that markets are stabilizing. It’s the first required step before a recovery can take place. Sure, people here are still depressed, but talk is switching to the possibility of future gains, and it’s wiping away the incessant malaise that has pervaded the lodging business during the last nine months.

Take, for example, what Steven Joyce, President and CEO of Choice Hotels International, said in regard to how consumers are feeling these days and its potential effect on franchised hotels being able to fill rooms. “We are seeing a somewhat beginning of a rally of consumer confidence and we are forecasting to grow through the remainder of the year. There has been a stabilization of decline and people are getting more confident the world is not ending. So people are saying they want to travel,” said Joyce. “We are doing reasonably well because of our brands’ value orientation and we are hopeful and starting to believe there will be signs of things as the year goes through. We will see a much stronger third and fourth quarter.”

Chris Nassetta, President and CEO, Hilton Hotels Corporation, agreed. “The worst of this is behind us. I don’t want to be Pollyanna because there are a lot of structural issues to take care of. But we are on our way and we see some signs of life with consumers. And there are slow signs of capital markets starting to thaw a little bit. As more capital becomes available we’ll see more confidence in those segments. We’ll see some improvement in the third and fourth quarter and into next year,” said Nassetta.

Frits van Paasschen, President and CEO, Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, is predicting that not only has the industry hit rock bottom, but people who have been putting off travel will once again start planning getaways. “We see a change from panic and apoplexy and the beginning of confidence. There is major pent-up demand effect over time; there will be a rebound, but it’ll be different,” said van Paasschen. He adds that he feels the American consumer won’t drive the recovery; it’ll come from emerging markets such as China and India, which have seen growth in the last year of 6.1 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively. “Across developing markets there are real signs of economic growth,” he continued.

One executive not as confident is Gilles Pelisson, CEO of Accor, even though he agrees the bleeding has stopped. “We don’t see a very high level of recovery but we may have hit the bottom. There are still some countries in a very bad economic situation, such as Spain. We are conservative for the rest of the year as we see more layoffs and closings in places like Germany, France and Spain,” said Pelisson.

Several weeks ago at the HD Expo in Las Vegas, Mark Lommanno, President of Smith Travel Research, said he was seeing signs of occupancy and rate stabilization, but that it was too early to determine if it was a trend. Today he seemed more committed coming down on the side that a stabilization has occurred.

“It is clear to us the demand bottom has been reached. We have been bouncing around with peaks and valleys for four months and with ADR we are starting to see the same over the last six weeks. From where we sit it looks like it’s hit a plateau,” said Lommanno.

He also said the magnitude of the demand decline isn’t much different than the last cycle, but the big difference is that there are significantly more rooms in existence now. Additionally, the decline was much more protracted than in previous downturns, such as in the days following the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001 when occupancy dropped precipitously."

The picture? Albany in Western Australia - kindly sent me by Di Rapson recently accommodated as a Guest at Chanters Lodge, Livingstone. The worst looks over there in Albany quite alright! Fabulous!



Posted: 3 June 2009 at 09:55