The Kwacha and The Jump

Standard Chartered Bank said this during the week:

“Technically, US $/kwacha is now perched at key support levels the 100-week moving average stands at K4,440, and a decisive break of these levels can see an acceleration to the downside a key 50 per cent retracement level lies at K4,210,” said Khan. “We revised our US $/kwacha forecast profile to show more near-term kwacha strength and only very modest weakness further out. Without wishing to downplay slow local event risk, it is noteworthy that at many maturities Zambian government debt offers an attractive prospective total return on our central scenario of very mild kwacha depreciation on a one-year horizon.”

And Standard Chartered Bank has projected that Zambia would record 11.4 per cent rate of inflation this year while GDP is projected at 5.5 per cent with the kwacha expected to close at K4,925 against the US dollar.

I can’t pretend to understand exactly what it all means, just hope they’re right that the Kwacha will be K4925 to a US$ by the end of the year….that will mean a lot to Chanters Lodge

The picture? The Jump – my son Jan jumping into the Zambezi in October 2006 – if the Kwacha goes the other way – just watch me!